33 is a pretty good number. I was tempted to bet the under but as just mentioned the lack of competition makes me think twice.
I'm going to wait for Friday night crowd reports and some reviews before I take any action. Its slightly concerning there have been zero screenings, could be another Grudge 2.
I'm going to wait for Friday night crowd reports and some reviews before I take any action. Its slightly concerning there have been zero screenings, could be another Grudge 2.
im waiting also...ive been waiting for this movie for a while and pinny posts a razor sharp opening # imo...i was looking to bet this OVER but i cant just yet
final theatre count isnt out yet...its r-rated...tracking is below30m from reel source and mtc...
i know the buzz is high and it has a cult following (im going to see it friday night) but this is still a big nut to crack...bc of its rating its only gonna get 3 screens at big theatres...its on 3 at notfabio's theatre and there is a ceiling on these movies based on screen count...
i did read in this months stuff magazine that this one is supposed to be more gruesome than the previous 2 combined...im really really looking forward to it..
wait for friday nights midnight #s...then go after it...
final theatre count isnt out yet...its r-rated...tracking is below30m from reel source and mtc...
i know the buzz is high and it has a cult following (im going to see it friday night) but this is still a big nut to crack...bc of its rating its only gonna get 3 screens at big theatres...its on 3 at notfabio's theatre and there is a ceiling on these movies based on screen count...
i did read in this months stuff magazine that this one is supposed to be more gruesome than the previous 2 combined...im really really looking forward to it..
wait for friday nights midnight #s...then go after it...
Unless it went over the 42.5. Which is unlikely, but sometimes movies do fall outside the Intertops range. That's how they make money. Their lines suck, since they look tempting at +120, but if you do the math, when you combine it with the other part of the extreme O/U, the line can be up to -200 or worse sometimes.
i popped it today a couple times at pinny...now the line over -200...i think im gonna wait now until the midnights come out...
here's some good shit on it..........
Openers:
Cocaine Cowboys - 1 screen (4 showings)
Running with Scissors - 1 screen (4 showings)
Saw III - 3 screens (14 showings)
New
Catch a Fire - 1 screen (5 showings)
Running with Scissors - 1 screen (5 showings)
Saw III - 3 screens (15 showings)
___________________________________________________________
AMC Covina 30
Openers
Catch A Fire - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Running With Scissors - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Romeo & Juliet Sealed With A Kiss - 1 Screen (6 Showings)
Saw III - 4 Screens (19 Showings)
____________________________________________________________
AMC 30 at the Block
Saw III 12:01am Showing
Openers
The Bridge - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Catch A Fire - 1 Screen (6 Showings)
Running With Scissors - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Saw III - 5 Screens (25 Showings) [4 Prints - 1 Interlock]
_________________________________________________________________
Zingaling wrote:
Excellent counts for Saw III so far.
Yes, I only expected 3 screens at AMC Covina 30 and *maybe* four screens at The Block...But, 5!! That's amazing!
______________________________________________________________
Many 2 screen and 3 screen bookings throughout So Cal.
All is boding well.
_________________________________________________________________
Yeah it has 3 screens at a theater or two in Portland, and a decent number of two screens. Scren count should be pretty high.
_______________________________________________________________
Theatre counts
MovieDude wrote:
Joe wrote:
What's everyone thinking for the theatre count? 3200? 3500?
Can't see over 3,300, I think 3,200 on the dot is a safe bet.
Lionsgate is saying 4800 screens, so yes, 3200 seems to be realistic (1 and a half screens per complex average)
_______________________________________________________________
The same day I learned that we are doing Saw III midnights, I am told the presales for these have already outsold those for Saw II. This is excellent news, and I really can't see it opening any less than the previous installment.
_________________________________________________________________
Saw III Midnights
There are 19 midnights w/in 40 miles of me
_______________________________________________________________
SAW3 Update: Liongsate is making additional last minute prints available to SAW3 playdates to accomodate demand
-- notfabio, Oct 25, 18:49
Isn't mandatory for them to actually use them but with some chains going print crazy (like 4 screens) it ain't a bad sign.
here's some good shit on it..........
Openers:
Cocaine Cowboys - 1 screen (4 showings)
Running with Scissors - 1 screen (4 showings)
Saw III - 3 screens (14 showings)
New
Catch a Fire - 1 screen (5 showings)
Running with Scissors - 1 screen (5 showings)
Saw III - 3 screens (15 showings)
___________________________________________________________
AMC Covina 30
Openers
Catch A Fire - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Running With Scissors - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Romeo & Juliet Sealed With A Kiss - 1 Screen (6 Showings)
Saw III - 4 Screens (19 Showings)
____________________________________________________________
AMC 30 at the Block
Saw III 12:01am Showing
Openers
The Bridge - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Catch A Fire - 1 Screen (6 Showings)
Running With Scissors - 1 Screen (5 Showings)
Saw III - 5 Screens (25 Showings) [4 Prints - 1 Interlock]
_________________________________________________________________
Zingaling wrote:
Excellent counts for Saw III so far.
Yes, I only expected 3 screens at AMC Covina 30 and *maybe* four screens at The Block...But, 5!! That's amazing!
______________________________________________________________
Many 2 screen and 3 screen bookings throughout So Cal.
All is boding well.
_________________________________________________________________
Yeah it has 3 screens at a theater or two in Portland, and a decent number of two screens. Scren count should be pretty high.
_______________________________________________________________
Theatre counts
MovieDude wrote:
Joe wrote:
What's everyone thinking for the theatre count? 3200? 3500?
Can't see over 3,300, I think 3,200 on the dot is a safe bet.
Lionsgate is saying 4800 screens, so yes, 3200 seems to be realistic (1 and a half screens per complex average)
_______________________________________________________________
The same day I learned that we are doing Saw III midnights, I am told the presales for these have already outsold those for Saw II. This is excellent news, and I really can't see it opening any less than the previous installment.
_________________________________________________________________
Saw III Midnights
There are 19 midnights w/in 40 miles of me
_______________________________________________________________
SAW3 Update: Liongsate is making additional last minute prints available to SAW3 playdates to accomodate demand
-- notfabio, Oct 25, 18:49
Isn't mandatory for them to actually use them but with some chains going print crazy (like 4 screens) it ain't a bad sign.
i didnt bet the other 2...i sorta have this feeling scissors might go over3m..its only of those chick type movies...my gf was talking about it the other day saying she wants to see it...she read the book and wrote some 10page paper on it in colllege...i guess the book was really popular or something...
if i was gonna bet anything else id just bet that over only bc i think it has that devil wears prada type thing going for it
i popped saw pretty good...hopefully the sales pick up....i really dont want to have to come back and bet the under to cover my ass...i was hoping to pick up some nice change on this one this week
if i was gonna bet anything else id just bet that over only bc i think it has that devil wears prada type thing going for it
i popped saw pretty good...hopefully the sales pick up....i really dont want to have to come back and bet the under to cover my ass...i was hoping to pick up some nice change on this one this week
It seems that the advance sales data so far isn't good, which isn't good news for the Over.
Also, Saw 3, at 107 min, is 17 min longer than Saw 2 at 90 min. The extra 17 min doesn't sound like much, but it might mean 1 fewer showing in the evening hours, which is all that really matters.
Also, the Halloween weekend total over the last several years has been $87 mil, $92, $90, $87, $72, $71, $55, $46, etc keeps going down. The existing movies plus small openers will gross around $60 mil. Which means that there's only room for Saw 3 to get $32 mil, even if you expect a $92 mil weekend, which is already the highest Halloween weekend ever (looked at 25 years of data).
I was initially on the Over, and anything could happen, but these signs don't look good. It might be better to arb out, if you can take a profit by taking the Under, for those who already have the Over.
Also, Saw 3, at 107 min, is 17 min longer than Saw 2 at 90 min. The extra 17 min doesn't sound like much, but it might mean 1 fewer showing in the evening hours, which is all that really matters.
Also, the Halloween weekend total over the last several years has been $87 mil, $92, $90, $87, $72, $71, $55, $46, etc keeps going down. The existing movies plus small openers will gross around $60 mil. Which means that there's only room for Saw 3 to get $32 mil, even if you expect a $92 mil weekend, which is already the highest Halloween weekend ever (looked at 25 years of data).
I was initially on the Over, and anything could happen, but these signs don't look good. It might be better to arb out, if you can take a profit by taking the Under, for those who already have the Over.
Following up on the other movies and Husker & HPark's thoughts, Running With Scissors should be an Over, and the line is at takeable odds. This is a decent play because RWS already opened, so we kinda know how it's going to do. There is historical precedent for how limited release movies open. Even with bad reviews, RWS should go Over based on how these things expand.
To go Over, RWS needs $3 mil in 586 theaters, which means a 5.1k PTA, which means it needs to hold 18% of its $28.3k opening PTA last week. To see if it can do this, here are some limited-release comps.
The following movies are not exact comps as far as movies go, but show how limiteds expand. As long as the limiteds keep 18% of their initial PTA, then the Over is good. Most of these did not expand much until the 3rd or 4th week. RWS is expanding in its 2nd week, so it's % hold should be even better than these comps.
The 4 best comps (R rated adult movies in Oct-Dec with decent casts) did 18-30% holds over several weeks, with the week-to-week holds being 40-70%.
An average 22.5% hold would give RWS a $6.4k PTA for a $3.7 mil opening. Better than this should be expected due to expansion in its 2nd week, so fewer drops.
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Life as a House, R, 10/20/01, 10.1k PTA in 29 theaters, 2nd week 6.6k PTA in 88 theaters (65% hold), 3rd week 3.0k PTA in 1,288 theaters (45% hold). 30% overall hold from initial opening to semi-wide expansion.
Shopgirl, R, 10/21/05, 28.8k PTA in 8 theaters, 2nd week 11.0k PTA in 42 theaters (38% hold), 3rd week 5.1k PTA in 493 theaters (46% hold). 18% overall hold from initial release to semi-wide expansion.
Royal Tenenbaums, R, 12/14/01, 55.4k in 5t, 31.7k in 40t (57%), 17.0k in 291t (54%), 11.3k in 751t (66%). 20% hold from init to s-w.
About Schmidt, R, 12/13/02, 47.0k in 6t, 23.1k in 26t (49%), 2 weeks later 10.5k in 816t (45%). 22% from init to s-w.
To go Over, RWS needs $3 mil in 586 theaters, which means a 5.1k PTA, which means it needs to hold 18% of its $28.3k opening PTA last week. To see if it can do this, here are some limited-release comps.
The following movies are not exact comps as far as movies go, but show how limiteds expand. As long as the limiteds keep 18% of their initial PTA, then the Over is good. Most of these did not expand much until the 3rd or 4th week. RWS is expanding in its 2nd week, so it's % hold should be even better than these comps.
The 4 best comps (R rated adult movies in Oct-Dec with decent casts) did 18-30% holds over several weeks, with the week-to-week holds being 40-70%.
An average 22.5% hold would give RWS a $6.4k PTA for a $3.7 mil opening. Better than this should be expected due to expansion in its 2nd week, so fewer drops.
-----
Life as a House, R, 10/20/01, 10.1k PTA in 29 theaters, 2nd week 6.6k PTA in 88 theaters (65% hold), 3rd week 3.0k PTA in 1,288 theaters (45% hold). 30% overall hold from initial opening to semi-wide expansion.
Shopgirl, R, 10/21/05, 28.8k PTA in 8 theaters, 2nd week 11.0k PTA in 42 theaters (38% hold), 3rd week 5.1k PTA in 493 theaters (46% hold). 18% overall hold from initial release to semi-wide expansion.
Royal Tenenbaums, R, 12/14/01, 55.4k in 5t, 31.7k in 40t (57%), 17.0k in 291t (54%), 11.3k in 751t (66%). 20% hold from init to s-w.
About Schmidt, R, 12/13/02, 47.0k in 6t, 23.1k in 26t (49%), 2 weeks later 10.5k in 816t (45%). 22% from init to s-w.
